Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe.

ABSTRACT: Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary condi

SUBMITTER: Olsson C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5723629 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature