Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration

SUBMITTER: Johnson LF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5726614 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature