Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada Inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future.

Objectives

We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R₀) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R₀ estimates.

Methods

We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical (1971-2000), and to

SUBMITTER: McPherson M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5730520 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature