Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America.

ABSTRACT: Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To i

SUBMITTER: Kitzberger T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5731736 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature