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Advanced multi-loop algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction reveal that the simplest model is best.

ABSTRACT: Algorithmic prediction of RNA secondary structure has been an area of active inquiry since the 1970s. Despite many innovations since then, our best techniques are not yet perfect. The workhorses of the RNA secondary structure prediction engine are recursions first described by Zuker and Stiegler in 1981. These have well understood caveats; a notable flaw is the ad-hoc treatment of multi-loops, also called helical-junctions, that persists today. While several advanced models for multi-loops have been proposed, it seems to have been assumed that incorporating them into the recursions would lead to intractability, and so no algorithms for these models exist. Some of these models include the classical model based on Jacobson-Stockmayer polymer theory, and another by Aalberts and Nadagopal that incorporates two-length-scale polymer physics. We have realized practical, tractable algorithms for each of these models. However, after implementing these algorithms, we found that no advanced model was better than the original, ad-hoc model used for multi-loops. While this is unexpected, it supports the praxis of the current model.

SUBMITTER: Ward M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5737859 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Advanced multi-loop algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction reveal that the simplest model is best.

Ward Max M Datta Amitava A Wise Michael M Mathews David H DH

Nucleic acids research 20170801 14

Algorithmic prediction of RNA secondary structure has been an area of active inquiry since the 1970s. Despite many innovations since then, our best techniques are not yet perfect. The workhorses of the RNA secondary structure prediction engine are recursions first described by Zuker and Stiegler in 1981. These have well understood caveats; a notable flaw is the ad-hoc treatment of multi-loops, also called helical-junctions, that persists today. While several advanced models for multi-loops have ...[more]

PMID: 28586479

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Project description:BackgroundRNA molecules play critical roles in the cells of organisms, including roles in gene regulation, catalysis, and synthesis of proteins. Since RNA function depends in large part on its folded structures, much effort has been invested in developing accurate methods for prediction of RNA secondary structure from the base sequence. Minimum free energy (MFE) predictions are widely used, based on nearest neighbor thermodynamic parameters of Mathews, Turner et al. or those of Andronescu et al. Some recently proposed alternatives that leverage partition function calculations find the structure with maximum expected accuracy (MEA) or pseudo-expected accuracy (pseudo-MEA) methods. Advances in prediction methods are typically benchmarked using sensitivity, positive predictive value and their harmonic mean, namely F-measure, on datasets of known reference structures. Since such benchmarks document progress in improving accuracy of computational prediction methods, it is important to understand how measures of accuracy vary as a function of the reference datasets and whether advances in algorithms or thermodynamic parameters yield statistically significant improvements. Our work advances such understanding for the MFE and (pseudo-)MEA-based methods, with respect to the latest datasets and energy parameters.ResultsWe present three main findings. First, using the bootstrap percentile method, we show that the average F-measure accuracy of the MFE and (pseudo-)MEA-based algorithms, as measured on our largest datasets with over 2000 RNAs from diverse families, is a reliable estimate (within a 2% range with high confidence) of the accuracy of a population of RNA molecules represented by this set. However, average accuracy on smaller classes of RNAs such as a class of 89 Group I introns used previously in benchmarking algorithm accuracy is not reliable enough to draw meaningful conclusions about the relative merits of the MFE and MEA-based algorithms. Second, on our large datasets, the algorithm with best overall accuracy is a pseudo MEA-based algorithm of Hamada et al. that uses a generalized centroid estimator of base pairs. However, between MFE and other MEA-based methods, there is no clear winner in the sense that the relative accuracy of the MFE versus MEA-based algorithms changes depending on the underlying energy parameters. Third, of the four parameter sets we considered, the best accuracy for the MFE-, MEA-based, and pseudo-MEA-based methods is 0.686, 0.680, and 0.711, respectively (on a scale from 0 to 1 with 1 meaning perfect structure predictions) and is obtained with a thermodynamic parameter set obtained by Andronescu et al. called BL* (named after the Boltzmann likelihood method by which the parameters were derived).ConclusionsLarge datasets should be used to obtain reliable measures of the accuracy of RNA structure prediction algorithms, and average accuracies on specific classes (such as Group I introns and Transfer RNAs) should be interpreted with caution, considering the relatively small size of currently available datasets for such classes. The accuracy of the MEA-based methods is significantly higher when using the BL* parameter set of Andronescu et al. than when using the parameters of Mathews and Turner, and there is no significant difference between the accuracy of MEA-based methods and MFE when using the BL* parameters. The pseudo-MEA-based method of Hamada et al. with the BL* parameter set significantly outperforms all other MFE and MEA-based algorithms on our large data sets.

Project description:BackgroundAccurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches.ResultsIn this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures.ConclusionsOur new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between false negative and false positive base pair predictions. Finally, AveRNA can make use of arbitrary sets of secondary structure prediction procedures and can therefore be used to leverage improvements in prediction accuracy offered by algorithms and energy models developed in the future. Our data, MATLAB software and a web-based version of AveRNA are publicly available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/labs/beta/Software/AveRNA.

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Advanced multi-loop algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction reveal that the simplest model is best.

Publications

Advanced multi-loop algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction reveal that the simplest model is best.

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