Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate.

ABSTRACT: Phenological shifts constitute one of the clearest manifestations of climate warming. Advanced emergence is widely reported in high-latitude ectotherms, but a significant number of species exhibit delayed, or no change in, emergence. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that reconciles these disparate observations and predicts population-level phenological patterns based solely on data on temperature responses of the underlying life history traits. Our model, parameterized with data from insects at different latitudes, shows that peak abundance occurs earlier in the year when warming increases the mean environmental temperature, but is delayed when warming increases the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations. We find that warming does not necessarily lead to a longer activity pe

SUBMITTER: Scranton K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5740618 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature