Analysis of ENSO's response to unforced variability and anthropogenic forcing using CESM.

ABSTRACT: Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and relatively short observational record. Here we analyze the effect of coupled internal variability on changes in ENSO under anthropogenic global warming using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We present results from a ~5000 year control run with constant pre-industrial conditions and a 50-member climate change ensemble experiment, consisting of historical hindcasts (1850-2005) and future projections to 2100 following representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Given this large single-model ensemble, we are able to use simple statistical analyses to compare the effects of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natura

SUBMITTER: Vega-Westhoff B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5741761 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature