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Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models.

ABSTRACT: Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.

SUBMITTER: Goodsman DW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5756895 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models.

Goodsman Devin W DW Aukema Brian H BH McDowell Nate G NG Middleton Richard S RS Xu Chonggang C

Ecology and evolution 20171126 1

Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computa ...[more]

PMID: 29321860

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Project description:In México, at least 37 Agave species are extracted from wild populations for producing distilled spirits. This activity involves harvesting mature agaves just before producing their inflorescences, which cancels sexual reproduction of plants used. The increasing demand of agaves spirits in national and international markets is determining a strong pressure on wild populations, most of them lacking adequate management. In addition, the dynamics of agave populations may be affected by natural phenomena like oscillation of rainfall regimes, which affects the recruitment of agave seedlings, or the scarcity of pollinators that may affect seed production and general population dynamics. We studied the demography of wild populations of Agave inaequidens to analyze critical conditions for populations recovery, modelling the effects of rainfall trends on the demographic performance of this species, and exploring response of populations to hypothetical extraction regimes and reforestation efforts. Our study was performed in four well-conserved wild populations in Central Western Mexico, each population was sampled in a plot of about one hectare composed by 10 subplots 50 x 5 m (2500 m2). Populations were monitored yearly between 2011 and 2013, measuring plant size, reproductive individuals, and fecundity. Data were analyzed through integral projection models by using the IPMpack for R, to perform prospective analyses. We in addition constructed stochastic models to explore the possible influence of rainfall variation on species demography, using data for the drier and wetter years of the study period. Population growth varied from λ=1.003 to λ=0.899 among populations and years, and exceptionally λ=0.559 after a fire event. Low rainfall decreases λ values, indicating especial limitations to harvesting agaves during dry years whose frequency most probably will increase. In general, extraction rates from 10% to 30% of mature individuals are viable to maintain λ above 1, and these rates may be higher if new plants are introduced in populations. Depending on levels of extraction, our models suggest that it is necessary to carry out actions of reforestation, and in situ management according to the trends found in each site. This is one indispensable condition to maintain λ close to or greater than 1. Sustainable extraction of wild agaves is possible, some communities are already carrying out a repertoire of goods practices in this direction, but together with ecological criteria and good management techniques, strict regulations and social organization are needed to achieve it.

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Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models.

Publications

Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models.

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