Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In the next 25 years, the epidemiology of cervical cancer in England, UK, will change: human papillomavirus (HPV) screening will be the primary test for cervical cancer. Additionally, the proportion of women screened regularly is decreasing and women who received the HPV vaccine are due to attend screening for the first time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate how vaccination against HPV, changes to the screening test, and falling screening coverage will affect cervical cancer incidence in England up to 2040. METHODS:We did a data modelling study that combined results from population modelling of incidence trends, observable data from the individual level with use of a generalised linear model, and microsimulation of unobservable disease states. We estimated age-specific absolute r

SUBMITTER: Castanon A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5765529 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature