Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation--the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern--is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March-April can predict the SEA pattern in July-August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses sho

SUBMITTER: Osso A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5776804 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature