Seasonal Influenza Forecasting in Real Time Using the Incidence Decay With Exponential Adjustment Model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Seasonal influenza epidemics occur frequently. Rapid characterization of seasonal dynamics and forecasting of epidemic peaks and final sizes could help support real-time decision-making related to vaccination and other control measures. Real-time forecasting remains challenging.

Methods

We used the previously described "incidence decay with exponential adjustment" (IDEA) model, a 2-parameter phenomenological model, to evaluate the characteristics of the 2015-2016 influenza season in 4 Canadian jurisdictions: the Provinces of Alberta, Nova Scotia and Ontario, and the City of Ottawa. Model fits were updated weekly with receipt of incident virologically confirmed case counts. Best-fit models were used to project seasonal influenza peaks and epidemic final sizes.

R

SUBMITTER: Nasserie T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5781299 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature