The influence of phylodynamic model specifications on parameter estimates of the Zika virus epidemic.

ABSTRACT: Each new virus introduced into the human population could potentially spread and cause a worldwide epidemic. Thus, early quantification of epidemic spread is crucial. Real-time sequencing followed by Bayesian phylodynamic analysis has proven to be extremely informative in this respect. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses require a model to be chosen and prior distributions on model parameters to be specified. We study here how choices regarding the tree prior influence quantification of epidemic spread in an emerging epidemic by focusing on estimates of the parameters clock rate, tree height, and reproductive number in the currently ongoing Zika virus epidemic in the Americas. While parameter estimates are quite robust to reasonable variations in the model settings when studying the complete da

SUBMITTER: Boskova V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5789282 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature