Prediction of violent crime on discharge from secure psychiatric hospitals: A clinical prediction rule (FoVOx).

ABSTRACT:

Background

Current approaches to assess violence risk in secure hospitals are resource intensive, limited by accuracy and authorship bias and may have reached a performance ceiling. This study seeks to develop scalable predictive models for violent offending following discharge from secure psychiatric hospitals.

Methods

We identified all patients discharged from secure hospitals in Sweden between January 1, 1992 and December 31, 2013. Using multiple Cox regression, pre-specified criminal, sociodemographic, and clinical risk factors were included in a model that was tested for discrimination and calibration in the prediction of violent crime at 12 and 24 months post-discharge. Risk cut-offs were pre-specified at 5% (low vs. medium) and 20% (medium vs. high).

Results

We

SUBMITTER: Wolf A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5797975 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature