Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics.

ABSTRACT: Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time-area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly

SUBMITTER: Sherley RB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5805942 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature