Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

ABSTRACT: Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km³/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km³/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variation

SUBMITTER: Scanlon BR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5819387 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature