Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles.

ABSTRACT: Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Experience has shown that the performance of these models varies; some tend to do better or worse in different seasons or at different points within a season. Ensemble methods combine multiple models to obtain a single prediction that leverages the strengths of each model. We considered a range of ensemble methods that each form a predictive density for a target of interest as a weighted sum of the predictive densities from component models. In the simplest case, equal weight is

SUBMITTER: Ray EL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5834190 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature