Demographically diverse crowds are typically not much wiser than homogeneous crowds.

ABSTRACT: Averaging independent numerical judgments can be more accurate than the average individual judgment. This "wisdom of crowds" effect has been shown with large, diverse samples, but the layperson wishing to take advantage of this may only have access to the opinions of a small, more demographically homogeneous "convenience sample." How wise are homogeneous crowds relative to diverse crowds? In simulations and survey studies, we demonstrate three necessary conditions under which small socially diverse crowds can outperform socially homogeneous crowds: Social identity must predict judgment, the effect of social identity on judgment must be at least moderate in size, and the average estimates of the social groups in question must "bracket" the truth being judged. Seven survey studies suggest th

SUBMITTER: de Oliveira S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5834705 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature