Real-time predictive seasonal influenza model in Catalonia, Spain.

ABSTRACT: Influenza surveillance is critical to monitoring the situation during epidemic seasons and predictive mathematic models may aid the early detection of epidemic patterns. The objective of this study was to design a real-time spatial predictive model of ILI (Influenza Like Illness) incidence rate in Catalonia using one- and two-week forecasts. The available data sources used to select explanatory variables to include in the model were the statutory reporting disease system and the sentinel surveillance system in Catalonia for influenza incidence rates, the official climate service in Catalonia for meteorological data, laboratory data and Google Flu Trend. Time series for every explanatory variable with data from the last 4 seasons (from 2010-2011 to 2013-2014) was created. A pilot test was c

SUBMITTER: Basile L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5841785 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature