Structural Sensitivity in HIV Modeling: A Case Study of Vaccination.

ABSTRACT: Structural assumptions in infectious disease models, such as the choice of network or compartmental model type or the inclusion of different types of heterogeneity across individuals, might affect model predictions as much as or more than the choice of input parameters. We explore the potential implications of structural assumptions on HIV model predictions and policy conclusions. We illustrate the value of inference robustness assessment through a case study of the effects of a hypothetical HIV vaccine in multiple population subgroups over eight related transmission models, which we sequentially modify to vary over two dimensions: parameter complexity (e.g., the inclusion of age and HCV comorbidity) and contact/simulation complexity (e.g., aggregated compartmental vs. individual/disaggreg

SUBMITTER: Bernard CL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5844493 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature