Linking influenza epidemic onsets to covariates at different scales using a dynamical model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Evaluating the factors favoring the onset of influenza epidemics is a critical public health issue for surveillance, prevention and control. While past outbreaks provide important insights for understanding epidemic onsets, their statistical analysis is challenging since the impact of a factor can be viewed at different scales. Indeed, the same factor can explain why epidemics are more likely to begin (i) during particular weeks of the year (global scale); (ii) earlier in particular regions (spatial scale) or years (annual scale) than others and (iii) earlier in some years than others within a region (spatiotemporal scale).

Methods

Here, we present a statistical approach based on dynamical modeling of infectious diseases to study epidemic onsets. We propose a meth

SUBMITTER: Roussel M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5845579 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature