External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This study aimed to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer (CRC) that include variables routinely available or easily obtainable via self-completed questionnaire.

Methods

External validation of fourteen risk models from a previous systematic review in 373 112 men and women within the UK Biobank cohort with 5-year follow-up, no prior history of CRC and data for incidence of CRC through linkage to national cancer registries.

Results

There were 1719 (0.46%) cases of incident CRC. The performance of the risk models varied substantially. In men, the QCancer10 model and models by Tao, Driver and Ma all had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.67 and 0.70. Discrimination was

SUBMITTER: Usher-Smith JA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5846069 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature