The hierarchical age-period-cohort model: Why does it find the results that it finds?

ABSTRACT: It is claimed the hierarchical-age-period-cohort (HAPC) model solves the age-period-cohort (APC) identification problem. However, this is debateable; simulations show situations where the model produces incorrect results, countered by proponents of the model arguing those simulations are not relevant to real-life scenarios. This paper moves beyond questioning whether the HAPC model works, to why it produces the results it does. We argue HAPC estimates are the result not of the distinctive substantive APC processes occurring in the dataset, but are primarily an artefact of the data structure-that is, the way the data has been collected. Were the data collected differently, the results produced would be different. This is illustrated both with simulations and real data, the latter by taking

SUBMITTER: Bell A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5847147 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature