Linking Individual Natural History to Population Outcomes in Tuberculosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Substantial individual heterogeneity exists in the clinical manifestations and duration of active tuberculosis. We sought to link the individual-level characteristics of tuberculosis disease to observed population-level outcomes.

Methods

We developed an individual-based, stochastic model of tuberculosis disease in a hypothetical cohort of patients with smear-positive tuberculosis. We conceptualized the disease process as consisting of 2 states-progression and recovery-including transitions between the 2. We then used a Bayesian process to calibrate the model to clinical data from the prechemotherapy era, thus identifying the rates of progression and recovery (and probabilities of transition) consistent with observed population-level clinical outcomes.

Results</

SUBMITTER: Salvatore PP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5853266 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature