Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission.

Methods

We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model.

Results

Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday

SUBMITTER: Ewing A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5853779 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature