Estimating the risks and benefits of active surveillance protocols for prostate cancer: a microsimulation study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To estimate the increase in prostate cancer mortality (PCM) and the reduction in overtreatment resulting from different active surveillance (AS) protocols, compared with treating men immediately.

Patients and methods

We used a microsimulation model (MISCAN-Prostate), with the natural history of prostate cancer based on European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer data. We estimated the probabilities of referral to radical treatment while on AS, depending on disease stage, using data from the Johns Hopkins AS cohort. We sampled 10 million men, representative of the US population, and projected the effects of applying AS protocols that differed by time between biopsies and compared these with the effects of treating men immediately.

Results

We fo

SUBMITTER: de Carvalho TM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5859305 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature