Pre-industrial plague transmission is mediated by the synergistic effect of temperature and aridity index.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although the linkage between climate change and plague transmission has been proposed in previous studies, the dominant approach has been to address the linkage with traditional statistical methods, while the possible non-linearity, non-stationarity and low frequency domain of the linkage has not been fully considered. We seek to address the above issue by investigating plague transmission in pre-industrial Europe (AD1347-1760) at both continental and country levels.

Methods

We apply Granger Causality Analysis to identify the casual relationship between climatic variables and plague outbreaks. We then apply Wavelet Analysis to explore the non-linear and non-stationary association between climate change and plague outbreaks.

Results

Our results show that 5-y

SUBMITTER: Yue RPH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5859406 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature