The Relationship Between School Holidays and Transmission of Influenza in England and Wales.

ABSTRACT: School closure is often considered as an influenza control measure, but its effects on transmission are poorly understood. We used 2 approaches to estimate how school holidays affect the contact parameter (the per capita rate of contact sufficient for infection transmission) for influenza using primary care data from England and Wales (1967-2000). Firstly, we fitted an age-structured susceptible-infectious-recovered model to each year's data to estimate the proportional change in the contact parameter during school holidays as compared with termtime. Secondly, we calculated the percentage difference in the contact parameter between holidays and termtime from weekly values of the contact parameter, estimated directly from simple mass-action models. Estimates were combined using random-effec

SUBMITTER: Jackson C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5860259 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature