Visualizing the Bayesian 2-test case: The effect of tree diagrams on medical decision making.

ABSTRACT: In medicine, diagnoses based on medical test results are probabilistic by nature. Unfortunately, cognitive illusions regarding the statistical meaning of test results are well documented among patients, medical students, and even physicians. There are two effective strategies that can foster insight into what is known as Bayesian reasoning situations: (1) translating the statistical information on the prevalence of a disease and the sensitivity and the false-alarm rate of a specific test for that disease from probabilities into natural frequencies, and (2) illustrating the statistical information with tree diagrams, for instance, or with other pictorial representation. So far, such strategies have only been empirically tested in combination for "1-test cases", where one binary hypothesis (

SUBMITTER: Binder K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5871005 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature