Dataset Information

Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014.

ABSTRACT: Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a severe manifestation of dengue viral infection that can cause severe bleeding, organ impairment, and even death, affects between 15,000 and 105,000 people each year in Thailand. While all Thai provinces experience at least one DHF case most years, the distribution of cases shifts regionally from year to year. Accurately forecasting where DHF outbreaks occur before the dengue season could help public health officials prioritize public health activities. We develop statistical models that use biologically plausible covariates, observed by April each year, to forecast the cumulative DHF incidence for the remainder of the year. We perform cross-validation during the training phase (2000-2009) to select the covariates for these models. A parsimonious model based on preseason incidence outperforms the 10-y median for 65% of province-level annual forecasts, reduces the mean absolute error by 19%, and successfully forecasts outbreaks (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.84) over the testing period (2010-2014). We find that functions of past incidence contribute most strongly to model performance, whereas the importance of environmental covariates varies regionally. This work illustrates that accurate forecasts of dengue risk are possible in a policy-relevant timeframe.

SUBMITTER: Lauer SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5877997 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014.

Lauer Stephen A SA Sakrejda Krzysztof K Ray Evan L EL Keegan Lindsay T LT Bi Qifang Q Suangtho Paphanij P Hinjoy Soawapak S Iamsirithaworn Sopon S Suthachana Suthanun S Laosiritaworn Yongjua Y Cummings Derek A T DAT Lessler Justin J Reich Nicholas G NG

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180220 10

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a severe manifestation of dengue viral infection that can cause severe bleeding, organ impairment, and even death, affects between 15,000 and 105,000 people each year in Thailand. While all Thai provinces experience at least one DHF case most years, the distribution of cases shifts regionally from year to year. Accurately forecasting where DHF outbreaks occur before the dengue season could help public health officials prioritize public health activities. We develo ...[more]

PMID: 29463757

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Project description:BackgroundSeries of biochemical and haematological changes occur during the course of dengue infection, which vary depending on the clinical disease. The patterns of change are not well documented and identifying these patterns in children with dengue infection would help to anticipate the progression to different clinical stages thus enabling effective management.MethodsA prospective follow up study was conducted during the period of July 2013 - April 2014 at Professorial Pediatric unit, Lady Ridgeway Hospital for Children, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Children (5-12 years) admitted within the first 84 h of fever, with a clinical diagnosis of dengue infection were recruited. Children who became positive for dengue IgM were included in the final analysis. Blood was collected on admission for complete blood count, Alanine aminotransferase, Aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, cholesterol and corrected calcium. These tests were repeated at 12 hourly intervals during the hospital stay.ResultsData of 130-subjects were analyzed (Dengue fever /Dengue hemorrhagic fever: 100/30). There was a significant difference in the pattern of white cell counts, platelets and haematocrit in the two clinical groups. Both transaminase rose initially in both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever and a steep rise were seen between 8th and 9th days in hemorrhagic fever. Both albumin and cholesterol decreased significantly at the time of entering into the critical phase. According to Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, albumin level crossing 37.5g/L (sensitivity 86.7%, specificity 77.8%) and a 0.38 mmol/L reduction in cholesterol level (sensitivity 77.3%, specificity 71.9%) between day 3 and 4 were the best predictors of entering into critical phase. Calcium levels did not show any distinct pattern.ConclusionsThere is a clear difference in the pattern of change of both hematological and biochemical parameters in dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever. Reduction in albumin and cholesterol levels seen between the completion of day 3 and day 4 were highly valid predictors of entering into critical phase in dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Dataset Information

Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014.

Publications

Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014.

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