Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010-2014.

ABSTRACT: Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a severe manifestation of dengue viral infection that can cause severe bleeding, organ impairment, and even death, affects between 15,000 and 105,000 people each year in Thailand. While all Thai provinces experience at least one DHF case most years, the distribution of cases shifts regionally from year to year. Accurately forecasting where DHF outbreaks occur before the dengue season could help public health officials prioritize public health activities. We develop statistical models that use biologically plausible covariates, observed by April each year, to forecast the cumulative DHF incidence for the remainder of the year. We perform cross-validation during the training phase (2000-2009) to select the covariates for these models. A parsimonious model base

SUBMITTER: Lauer SA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5877997 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature