The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections.

ABSTRACT: Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people's interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting; (2) imprecise, but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and r

SUBMITTER: Benjamin DM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5881250 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature