Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R₀.

Methods

A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R₀ and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method.

Results

R₀ ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median est

SUBMITTER: Matsuyama R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5885970 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature