Stochastic satisficing account of confidence in uncertain value-based decisions.

ABSTRACT: Every day we make choices under uncertainty; choosing what route to work or which queue in a supermarket to take, for example. It is unclear how outcome variance, e.g. uncertainty about waiting time in a queue, affects decisions and confidence when outcome is stochastic and continuous. How does one evaluate and choose between an option with unreliable but high expected reward, and an option with more certain but lower expected reward? Here we used an experimental design where two choices' payoffs took continuous values, to examine the effect of outcome variance on decision and confidence. We found that our participants' probability of choosing the good (high expected reward) option decreased when the good or the bad options' payoffs were more variable. Their confidence ratings were affecte

SUBMITTER: Hertz U 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5886535 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature