Dataset Information

Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

ABSTRACT: Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product's diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.

SUBMITTER: Lee WS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5890978 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

Lee Won Sang WS Choi Hyo Shin HS Sohn So Young SY

PloS one 20180409 4

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product's diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as ...[more]

PMID: 29630616

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Project description:ObjectivesThis paper aimed to identify the technology frontiers of artificial intelligence-assisted pathology based on patent citation network.MethodsPatents related to artificial intelligence-assisted pathology were searched and collected from the Derwent Innovation Index (DII), which were imported into Derwent Data Analyzer (DDA, Clarivate Derwent, New York, NY, USA) for authority control, and imported into the freely available computer program Ucinet 6 for drawing the patent citation network. The patent citation network according to the citation relationship could describe the technology development context in the field of artificial intelligence-assisted pathology. The patent citations were extracted from the collected patent data, selected highly cited patents to form a co-occurrence matrix, and built a patent citation network based on the co-occurrence matrix in each period. Text clustering is an unsupervised learning method, an important method in text mining, where similar documents are grouped into clusters. The similarity between documents are determined by calculating the distance between them, and the two documents with the closest distance are combined. The method of text clustering was used to identify the technology frontiers based on the patent citation network, which was according to co-word analysis of the title and abstract of the patents in this field.Results1704 patents were obtained in the field of artificial intelligence-assisted pathology, which had been currently undergoing three stages, namely the budding period (1992-2000), the development period (2001-2015), and the rapid growth period (2016-2021). There were two technology frontiers in the budding period (1992-2000), namely systems and methods for image data processing in computerized tomography (CT), and immunohistochemistry (IHC), five technology frontiers in the development period (2001-2015), namely spectral analysis methods of biomacromolecules, pathological information system, diagnostic biomarkers, molecular pathology diagnosis, and pathological diagnosis antibody, and six technology frontiers in the rapid growth period (2016-2021), namely digital pathology (DP), deep learning (DL) algorithms-convolutional neural networks (CNN), disease prediction models, computational pathology, pathological image analysis method, and intelligent pathological system.ConclusionsArtificial intelligence-assisted pathology was currently in a rapid development period, and computational pathology, DL and other technologies in this period all involved the study of algorithms. Future research hotspots in this field would focus on algorithm improvement and intelligent diagnosis in order to realize the precise diagnosis. The results of this study presented an overview of the characteristics of research status and development trends in the field of artificial intelligence-assisted pathology, which could help readers broaden innovative ideas and discover new technological opportunities, and also served as important indicators for government policymaking.

Dataset Information

Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

Publications

Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

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