Small contribution of gold mines to the ongoing tuberculosis epidemic in South Africa: a modeling-based study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Gold mines represent a potential hotspot for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission and may be exacerbating the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic in South Africa. However, the presence of multiple factors complicates estimation of the mining contribution to the TB burden in South Africa.

Methods

We developed two models of TB in South Africa, a static risk model and an individual-based model that accounts for longer-term trends. Both models account for four populations - mine workers, peri-mining residents, labor-sending residents, and other residents of South Africa - including the size and prevalence of latent TB infection, active TB, and HIV of each population and mixing between populations. We calibrated to mine- and country-level data and used the static model

SUBMITTER: Chang ST 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5896106 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature