A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada.

ABSTRACT: Increasing HIV testing rates among high-risk groups should lead to increased numbers of cases being detected. Coupled with effective treatment and behavioural change among individuals with detected infection, increased testing should also reduce onward incidence of HIV in the population. However, it can be difficult to predict the strengths of these effects and thus the overall impact of testing. We construct a mathematical model of an ongoing HIV epidemic in a population of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. The model incorporates different levels of infection risk, testing habits and awareness of HIV status among members of the population. We introduce a novel Bayesian analysis that is able to incorporate potentially unreliable sexual health survey data along with firm cl

SUBMITTER: Irvine MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5908528 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature