The effects of increasing longevity and changing incidence on lifetime risk differentials: A decomposition approach.

ABSTRACT: Increasing longevity can distort time trends in summary measures of health and mortality, such as the lifetime risk of getting diseased. If not observing a cohort, this lifetime risk is calculated with cross-sectional data on age-specific incidence and survival. In those instances, incidence and survival may work in opposite directions resulting in lifetime risk estimates where, reductions in incidence might be offset by a simultaneous longevity increase. The proposed method decomposes the difference between two lifetime risks into contributions of changing incidence and changing survival. The approach can be extended to measure the contributions of changes in disease related mortality and even case fatality. We illustrate the method with hypothetical examples as well as remaining lifetime

SUBMITTER: Ebeling M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5909551 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature