The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt.

ABSTRACT: Infectious disease forecasting is gaining traction in the public health community; however, limited systematic comparisons of model performance exist. Here we present the results of a synthetic forecasting challenge inspired by the West African Ebola crisis in 2014-2015 and involving 16 international academic teams and US government agencies, and compare the predictive performance of 8 independent modeling approaches. Challenge participants were invited to predict 140 epidemiological targets across 5 different time points of 4 synthetic Ebola outbreaks, each involving different levels of interventions and "fog of war" in outbreak data made available for predictions. Prediction targets included 1-4 week-ahead case incidences, outbreak size, peak timing, and several natural history parameter

SUBMITTER: Viboud C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5927600 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature