The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5.

ABSTRACT: It is still unclear whether a hiatus period arises due to a vertical redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) without changing ocean heat uptake (OHU), or whether the increasing radiative forcing is associated with an increase in OHU when global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise stalls. By isolating natural variability from forced trends and performing a more precise lead-lag analysis, we show that in climate models TOA radiation and OHU do anti-correlate with natural variations in GMST, when GMST leads or when they coincide, but the correlation changes sign when OHU leads. Surface latent and sensible heat fluxes always force GMST-variations, whilst net surface longwave and solar radiation fluxes have a damping effect, implying that natural GMST-variations are caused by oceanic heat r

SUBMITTER: Drijfhout S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5943251 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature