The Cumulative Impact of Harm Reduction on the Swiss HIV Epidemic: Cohort Study, Mathematical Model, and Phylogenetic Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among injecting drug users (IDUs) is increasing in the United States due to the recent opioid epidemic and is the leading mode of transmission in Eastern Europe.

Methods

To evaluate the overall impact of HIV harm reduction, we combined (1) data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and public sources with (2) a mathematical model expressed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model reconstructs the national epidemic from the first case in 1980 until 2015. Phylogenetic cluster analysis of HIV-1 pol sequences was used to quantify the epidemic spillover from IDUs to the general population.

Results

Overall, harm reduction prevented 15903 (range, 15359-16448) HIV infections among IDUs until the end of 2015

SUBMITTER: Marzel A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5965087 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature