Modeling HIV disease progression and transmission at population-level: The potential impact of modifying disease progression in HIV treatment programs.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) with valacyclovir, an HSV-2 antiviral, can lower HIV viral load, but the impact of partially-suppressive valacyclovir relative to fully-suppressive ART on population HIV transmission has not been estimated.

Methods

We modeled HIV disease progression as a function of changes in viral load and CD4 count over time among ART naïve persons. The disease progression Markov model was nested within a dynamic model of HIV transmission at population level.

SUBMITTER: Ross JM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5975109 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature