Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply.

ABSTRACT: Even if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from 10 major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modeling. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model together with regional climate projections from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) was used for this purpose. A robustly positive calorie yield change was estimated for the EU Member States except for some regions in Southern and South-Eastern Europe. The mean impacts range from +30 Gcal ha-1 in the north, throug

SUBMITTER: Balkovic J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5993244 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature