National assessment of Canadian pandemic preparedness: Employing InFluNet to identify high-risk areas for inter-wave vaccine distribution.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Influenza pandemics emerge at irregular and unpredictable intervals to cause substantial health, economic and social burdens. Optimizing health-system response is vital to mitigating the consequences of future pandemics.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model to assess the preparedness of Canadian health systems to accommodate pandemic-related increases in patient demand. We identify vulnerable areas, assess the potential of inter-wave vaccination to mitigate impacts and evaluate the association between demographic and health-system characteristics in order to identify predictors of pandemic consequences.

Results

Modelled average attack rates were 23.7-37.2% with no intervention and 2.5-6.4% with pre-vaccination. Peak acute-care demand was 7.5-19.5% of c

SUBMITTER: Saunders-Hastings P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6002068 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature