Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060.

Methods

A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985-2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000-2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection.

Results

The projected number and percent of a

SUBMITTER: Lin J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6003101 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature