Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.

ABSTRACT: Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that re

SUBMITTER: Belote RT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6013454 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature