Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting.

ABSTRACT: In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, R_c, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate

SUBMITTER: Routledge I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6018772 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature