An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Anticipating the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is required to develop adequate public health policies.

Methods

A dynamic population model was built to estimate COPD prevalence by 2025 using data collected during the most recent large general population study on COPD prevalence in France (2005) as baseline values. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the effect of variations in key input variables.

Results

The model predicted a steady increase in crude COPD prevalence among subjects aged≥45 years from 2005 (prevalence estimate: 84.51‰) to 2025 (projected prevalence: 95.76‰, + 0.56‰/yr). There was a 4-fold increase in the prevalence of GOLD grade 3-4 cases, a 23% relative increase in women and a 21% relative increase in

SUBMITTER: Burgel PR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6022451 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature