Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity.

ABSTRACT: The 2011-2016 Californian drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the 21^st century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the aridity changes driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming-induced increased evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions in which aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO, and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these aridity changes are obtained in simul

SUBMITTER: Bonfils C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6027755 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature