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Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination.

ABSTRACT: Background:Control efforts for measles and rubella are intensifying globally. It becomes increasingly important to identify and reach remaining susceptible populations as elimination is approached. Methods:Serological surveys for measles and rubella can potentially measure susceptibility directly, but their use remains rare. In this study, using simulations, we outline key subtleties in interpretation associated with the dynamic context of age-specific immunity, highlighting how the patterns of immunity predicted from disease surveillance and vaccination coverage data may be misleading. Results:High-quality representative serosurveys could provide a more accurate assessment of immunity if challenges of conducting, analyzing, and interpreting them are overcome. We frame the core disease control and elimination questions that could be addressed by improved serological tools, discussing challenges and suggesting approaches to increase the feasibility and sustainability of the tool. Conclusions:Accounting for the dynamical context, serosurveys could play a key role in efforts to achieve and sustain elimination.

SUBMITTER: Winter AK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6049004 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination.

Winter Amy K AK Martinez Micaela E ME Cutts Felicity T FT Moss William J WJ Ferrari Matt J MJ McKee Amalie A Lessler Justin J Hayford Kyla K Wallinga Jacco J Metcalf C Jess E CJE

The Journal of infectious diseases 20180701 3

<h4>Background</h4>Control efforts for measles and rubella are intensifying globally. It becomes increasingly important to identify and reach remaining susceptible populations as elimination is approached.<h4>Methods</h4>Serological surveys for measles and rubella can potentially measure susceptibility directly, but their use remains rare. In this study, using simulations, we outline key subtleties in interpretation associated with the dynamic context of age-specific immunity, highlighting how t ...[more]

PMID: 29562334

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:Despite availability of safe and cost-effective vaccines to prevent it, measles remains one of the significant causes of death among children under five years of age globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) European Region has seen a drastic decline in measles and rubella cases in recent years, and a few of the once common measles genotypes are no longer detected. Buoyed by this success, all Member States of the Region reconfirmed their commitment in 2010 to eliminating measles and rubella, and made this a central objective of the European Vaccine Action Plan 2015-2020 (EVAP). Nevertheless, sporadic outbreaks continue, recently affecting primarily adolescents and young adults with no vaccination or an incomplete vaccination history. The European Regional Verification Commission for Measles and Rubella Elimination was established in 2011 to evaluate the status of measles and rubella elimination based on documentation submitted annually by each country's national verification committee. DISCUSSION:Each country's commitment to eliminate measles and rubella is influenced by competing health priorities, and in some cases lack of capacity and resources. All countries need to improve case-base surveillance for both measles and rubella, ensure documentation of each outbreak and strengthen the link between epidemiology and laboratory data. Achieving high coverage with measles- and rubella-containing vaccines will require a multisectoral approach to address the root causes of lower uptake in identified communities including service delivery challenges or vaccine safety concerns caused by circulating myths about vaccination. CONCLUSIONS:The WHO European Region has made steady progress towards eliminating measles and rubella and over half of the countries interrupted endemic transmission of both diseases by 2015. The programmatic challenges in disease surveillance, vaccination service delivery and communication in the remaining endemic countries should be addressed through periodic evaluation of the strategies by all stakeholders and exploring additional opportunities to accelerate the ongoing elimination activities.

Project description:IntroductionIn seven southern African countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe), following implementation of a measles mortality reduction strategy starting in 1996, the number of annually reported measles cases decreased sharply to less than one per million population during 2006-2008. However, during 2009-2010, large outbreaks occurred in these countries. In 2011, a goal for measles elimination by 2020 was set in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region (AFR). We reviewed the implementation of the measles control strategy and measles epidemiology during the resurgence in the seven southern African countries.MethodsEstimated coverage with routine measles vaccination, supplemental immunization activities (SIA), annually reported measles cases by country, and measles surveillance and laboratory data were analyzed using descriptive analysis.ResultsIn the seven countries, coverage with the routine first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) decreased from 80% to 65% during 1996-2004, then increased to 84% in 2011; during 1996-2011, 79,696,523 people were reached with measles vaccination during 45 SIAs. Annually reported measles cases decreased from 61,160 cases to 60 cases and measles incidence decreased to <1 case per million during 1996-2008. During 2009-2010, large outbreaks that included cases among older children and adults were reported in all seven countries, starting in South Africa and Namibia in mid-2009 and in the other five countries by early 2010. The measles virus genotype detected was predominantly genotype B3.ConclusionThe measles resurgence highlighted challenges to achieving measles elimination in AFR by 2020. To achieve this goal, high two-dose measles vaccine coverage by strengthening routine immunization systems and conducting timely SIAs targeting expanded age groups, potentially including young adults, and maintaining outbreak preparedness to rapidly respond to outbreaks will be needed.

Project description:BackgroundMarked reductions in the incidence of measles and rubella have been observed since the widespread use of the measles and rubella vaccines. Although no global goal for measles eradication has been established, all six WHO regions have set measles elimination targets. However, a gap remains between current control levels and elimination targets, as shown by large measles outbreaks between 2017 and 2019. We aimed to model the potential for measles and rubella elimination globally to inform a WHO report to the 73rd World Health Assembly on the feasibility of measles and rubella eradication.MethodsIn this study, we modelled the probability of measles and rubella elimination between 2020 and 2100 under different vaccination scenarios in 93 countries of interest. We evaluated measles and rubella burden and elimination across two national transmission models each (Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine [DynaMICE], Pennsylvania State University [PSU], Johns Hopkins University, and Public Health England models), and one subnational measles transmission model (Institute for Disease Modeling model). The vaccination scenarios included a so-called business as usual approach, which continues present vaccination coverage, and an intensified investment approach, which increases coverage into the future. The annual numbers of infections projected by each model, country, and vaccination scenario were used to explore if, when, and for how long the infections would be below a threshold for elimination.FindingsThe intensified investment scenario led to large reductions in measles and rubella incidence and burden. Rubella elimination is likely to be achievable in all countries and measles elimination is likely in some countries, but not all. The PSU and DynaMICE national measles models estimated that by 2050, the probability of elimination would exceed 75% in 14 (16%) and 36 (39%) of 93 modelled countries, respectively. The subnational model of measles transmission highlighted inequity in routine coverage as a likely driver of the continuance of endemic measles transmission in a subset of countries.InterpretationTo reach regional elimination goals, it will be necessary to innovate vaccination strategies and technologies that increase spatial equity of routine vaccination, in addition to investing in existing surveillance and outbreak response programmes.FundingWHO, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination.

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Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination.

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