High-resolution epidemic simulation using within-host infection and contact data.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent epidemics have entailed global discussions on revamping epidemic control and prevention approaches. A general consensus is that all sources of data should be embraced to improve epidemic preparedness. As a disease transmission is inherently governed by individual-level responses, pathogen dynamics within infected hosts posit high potentials to inform population-level phenomena. We propose a multiscale approach showing that individual dynamics were able to reproduce population-level observations.

Methods

Using experimental data, we formulated mathematical models of pathogen infection dynamics from which we simulated mechanistically its transmission parameters. The models were then embedded in our implementation of an age-specific contact network that allows

SUBMITTER: Nguyen VK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6050668 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature