The mathematics of market timing.

ABSTRACT: Market timing is an investment technique that tries to continuously switch investment into assets forecast to have better returns. What is the likelihood of having a successful market timing strategy? With an emphasis on modeling simplicity, I calculate the feasible set of market timing portfolios using index mutual fund data for perfectly timed (by hindsight) all or nothing quarterly switching between two asset classes, US stocks and bonds over the time period 1993-2017. The historical optimal timing path of switches is shown to be indistinguishable from a random sequence. The key result is that the probability distribution function of market timing returns is asymmetric, that the highest probability outcome for market timing is a below median return. Put another way, simple math says mar

SUBMITTER: Metcalfe G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6051602 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature